Fortnightly
The Kyoto Protocol: History, Facts, Figures and Projections
April 15, 1999
By William L. Thomas
In June 1992, Mexico and more than 150 other countries signed the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC, or Framework Convention) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Emissions Targets
The Framework Convention called for parties to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000, to protect carbon sinks, e.g., forests, and to help finance and provide technology to developing countries to help them meet general commitments. These non-binding commitments proved unavailing, however, with only a very few countries demonstrating both an ability and a willingness to meet the voluntary goals set by the treaty. By the time the parties to the convention convened in Kyoto in December 1997, the stage had been set for a contentious negotiation over commitments to enforceable targets and timetables.
At Kyoto the members of the OECD as of 1992 and the countries of the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe listed in Annex I to the Framework Convention pledged to cut anthropogenic emissions of six greenhouse gases during a five-year commitment period, 2008-2012. fn1 The covered greenhouse gases are: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydroflourocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexaflouride.
The reduction targets, which also give credit for afforestation, reforestation and better forestry projects that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, are 7 percent and 6 percent below 1990 emission levels for the United States and Canada, respectively. In the aggregate, the market-based agreement commits the industrialized nations listed in Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol to national targets that will result in a 5.2 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2008 to 2012.fn2
Implications - Industrialized Nations
The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration estimates that in order for the emissions targets specified by the Protocol to be achieved by industrialized countries solely through reduction of fossil fuel use, projected energy demand in 2020 would have to be scaled back by 40 to 60 quadrillion Btu - equivalent to between 20 million and 30 million barrels of oil per day.fn3 The "demanding fossil fuel emissions targets for rich countries could be met," observes Richard Cooper, Boas Professor of International Economics at Harvard University, "by greater efficiency at converting fossil fuels to usable energy in existing plants; switching from coal to natural gas; building new plants and machinery that use less carbon per unit of usable energy, including nuclear power plants; and reducing demand for energy." He adds, however, "the scope for change at the easiest monitoring points is limited. Obsolete generating plants can be replaced with more efficient or less carbon-dependent ones, but demand for such plants in the OECD will be modest over the next 20 years. Replacing power plants faster than obsolescence requires is dauntingly expensive." fn4 The situation poses particular difficulty for the United States, whose emissions are otherwise expected to grow by over 30 percent between 1990 and 2010.fn5 The treaty will enter into force upon ratification of at least 55 nations, including enough developed countries to account for 55 percent of the global carbon dioxide emissions in 1990. Eighty-four countries have signed the Kyoto Protocol thus far, including Mexico, which did so on June 9, 1998.
Implications - Developing Nations
The Kyoto Protocol does not commit Mexico, or any other developing nation for that matter, to limits on greenhouse gas emissions. This is problematic because climate change from an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases inherently is a global issue. Whatever their earthly origin, the gases are dispersed widely in the upper atmosphere. American concessions on binding reductions will be completely ineffectual if new Asian, African and Latin American emissions overwhelm U.S. savings. The World Resources Institute estimates that current carbon dioxide emissions from human sources - mostly from the burning of fossil fuels - average more than 7 billion metric tons of carbon per year.fn6 Merely keeping carbon dioxide emissions roughly at today's levels would result in a doubling of the concentration in the atmosphere from its pre-industrial level by the end of the 21st century, with the carbon dioxide concentration continuing to rise for another century after that before stabilizing. Though projections vary substantially with assumptions about rates of economic growth, it appears that sometime between 2010 and 2020 China will overtake the United States as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, and that sometime thereafter emissions in the developing world will exceed those of the developed world. The World Resources Institute summed up the situation in its Guide to the Global Environment:
"The developing nations' share of commercial energy consumption is expected to grow to nearly 40 per cent by 2010. CO2 emissions would rise even faster to about 45 per cent of global emissions. The factors driving this increased energy demand in the developing world include rapid industrial expansion and infrastructure improvement; high population growth and urbanization; and rising incomes that enable families to purchase energy-consuming appliances and cars they could not afford before."fn7
For this reason, the Clinton administration and the U.S. Congress have adopted the stance that the United States will not ratify the Protocol without the "meaningful participation" of developing countries.fn8 Stuart Eizenstat, Undersecretary of State for Economic, Business, and Agricultural Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, and Frank Loy, Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs, articulated the U.S. position in a December 1998 opinion editorial for The Washington Post: "developing countries' participation in this fight is not a political nicety - it is an environmental necessity."fn9
1 United Nations, Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, Kyoto Protocol to the United nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, U.N. Doc. FCCC/CP/1997/L.7/Add. 1 (1997), 37 I.L.M. 22 [hereinafter Kyoto Protocol, or the Protocol]. For additional analysis of the Kyoto Protocol, see Schuler Jr., Joseph F., "Kyoto Protocol: Economic Threat or Opportunity?" Public Utilities Fortnightly, July 15, 1998, 26; Striano, Elizabeth, "Ready for CO2 Allowances? U.S. Passes on Emissions Cap, Kyoto or No," Public Utilities Fortnightly, May 15, 1998, 30.
2 Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol includes the 36 parties listed in Annex I of the convention, except Turkey and Belarus, who are not parties to the convention, plus four countries that have accepted "Annex I Party" status since 1992: Croatia, Liechtenstein, Monaco and Slovenia.
3 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2 (1998).
4 Cooper, Richard N., "Toward a Real Global Warming Treaty," Foreign Affairs, March/April 1998, at 73.
5 Carr, Donald A., and Thomas, William L., "Calculating the Cost of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions (Heading into Kyoto Protocol Negotiations in Buenos Aires)," Envtl. Quality Mgmt., Autumn 1998, at 29; Hoffman, Andrew J., ed., Global Climate Change: A Senior Level Debate at the Intersection of Economics, Strategy, Technology, Science, Politics, and International Negotiation, New Lexington Press, 1998; Adler, Jonathan H., ed., The Costs of Kyoto, Competitive Enterprise Institute, 1997. For various estimates of the financial impact of the treaty on U.S. firms, see Wiese, Arthur M., "Impacts of Market-Based Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Policies on U.S. Manufacturing Competitiveness" (American Petroleum Institute) (Research Study No. 090); U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, October 1998; The Kyoto Protocol and the President's Policies to Address Climate Change: Administration Economic Analysis, July 1998.
6 The World Resources Institute, World Resources 1998-99: A Guide to the Global Environment, 170, Oxford University Press, 1998 [hereinafter World Resources Guide 1998-99].
7 World Resources Guide 1998-99, note 6, at 170.
8 See Carr, Donald A., and Thomas, William L., "The Kyoto Protocol and U.S. Climate Change Policy: Implications for American Industry," 7 Rev. of Eur. Community & Int'l Envtl L., 191, (1998).
9 Eizenstat, Stuart E., and Loy, Frank E., "Hot Air on Climate Change," Washington Post, Dec. 7, 1998, at A25.
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